Paris: President Ebrahim Raisi's death in a helicopter crash has rearranged the cards in the succession process and brought more attention to Mojtaba, the top-ranked Iranian's son, as a potential successor to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Although experts point out that it is impossible to predict with certainty what the Iranian leadership will do, Raisi's track record as a cornerstone of the Islamic republic over a number of decades made him an obvious choice to succeed Khamenei as the country's supreme leader, following Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.
The Assembly of Experts appoints the supreme leader, who holds the ultimate word on all important issues, including foreign policy, and serves for life. The position has been held by Khamenei, 85, since Khomeini's passing in 1989.
Director of the Center for Middle East and Global Order think tank in Berlin, Ali Fathollah-Nejad, acknowledged that Khamenei had "catapulted his longtime confidant into major positions" but said that it is "very hard to tell" if Raisi was considered as a successor.
The Assembly of Experts appoints the supreme leader, who holds the ultimate word on all important issues, including foreign policy, and serves for life. The position has been held by Khamenei, 85, since Khomeini's passing in 1989.
Director of the Center for Middle East and Global Order think tank in Berlin, Ali Fathollah-Nejad, acknowledged that Khamenei had "catapulted his longtime confidant into major positions" but said that it is "very hard to tell" if Raisi was considered as a successor.
"In the complex political landscape of Iran, only a small group at the top is aware of Raisi's likelihood of emerging as the country's next supreme leader," noted International Crisis Group analysts Ali Vaez and Naysan Rafati in a report.
"But if he was to get the job, his death puts a big question mark on the succession."
'Reshuffled cards'
'Reshuffled cards'
In addition to Raisi, the other candidate who was highly anticipated was Khamenei's son Mojtaba, 54, a reclusive man who is heavily involved in politics behind the scenes and has the support of the US government.
He emphasized that because "dynastic rule" was so strongly opposed by the Islamic revolutionaries who overthrew the last shah, there were worries about it even among the Iranian leadership.
But now that Raisi has passed away, the odds on Khamenei's succession have changed. Consequently, the attention again returns to Mojtaba," he stated.
Maintaining a low profile, seldom appearing in media coverage, and holding no formal title, analysts consider Mojtaba Khamenei to be second in power at the office of the supreme leader, behind the long-serving chief gatekeeper, Mohammad Golpayegani.
When the US Treasury announced penalties against Mojtaba Khamenei in November 2019, claiming that Ali Khamenei had "delegated a part of his leadership responsibilities" to his son, it provided one of the few formal views into his significance.
The Brookings Institution's head of the foreign policy program, Suzanne Maloney, stated that Raisi's passing would "reshape the looming succession process" and that Raisi had become "one of the leading candidates" to succeed Khamenei in recent years.
Aside from Raisi, Mojtaba Khamenei, according to Maloney, is "the most prominent contender" and a person who has exercised "considerable power behind the scenes". She said, however, that there were also concerns about his religious background and hereditary rule.
With some attention focused on Ali Reza Arafi, a cleric who is a member of both the Guardians Council oversight body and the Assembly of Experts, analysts do not rule out the possibility that another name could emerge as a prospective supreme leader.