The Islamic Republic of Iran was going through one of its most difficult times when President Ebrahim Raisi died in a helicopter crash this week.
As a well-known member of the political elite, Raisi had significant influence over internal Iranian policy. Additionally, he played a key role in Iran's recent initiatives to strengthen ties with its regional competitors.What will his absence signify for the domestic affairs of the nation, considering his considerable influence? What effect will it have on the nation's ties with other countries in the area?
Maintaining stability at a perlious time
Very conservative in nature, Raisi's administration was closely associated with Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader. In contrast to previous governments, where most had some distance or tension with the leader, there were essentially no problems or disagreements between the two sides.
Raisi was also regarded as one of the front-runners to replace Khamenei, the 85-year-old who has presided over the Supreme Leader position for 35 years. He was a key player in determining the direction of Iranian leadership due to his wide influence within the nation's conservative circles.
But he passed away a year before his second term ended, and there were challenges on the home, regional, and global fronts at the time of his passing.
The United States continues to impose harsh sanctions on Iran due to its nuclear program, which has severely harmed the country's economy and negatively affected the lives of its citizens.
The death of Mahsa Amini, 22, in September 2022, after her detention by the morality police, also sparked one of the largest protest movements in the nation's history.
Raisi was also regarded as one of the front-runners to replace Khamenei, the 85-year-old who has presided over the Supreme Leader position for 35 years. He was a key player in determining the direction of Iranian leadership due to his wide influence within the nation's conservative circles.
But he passed away a year before his second term ended, and there were challenges on the home, regional, and global fronts at the time of his passing.
The United States continues to impose harsh sanctions on Iran due to its nuclear program, which has severely harmed the country's economy and negatively affected the lives of its citizens.
The death of Mahsa Amini, 22, in September 2022, after her detention by the morality police, also sparked one of the largest protest movements in the nation's history.
Furthermore, this year's March legislative elections saw among of the lowest voter turnouts in the nation's history. Therefore, at a time when the dictatorship's public legitimacy is at its lowest, the conduct of fresh elections—which is required within 50 days after Raisi's death—poses a serious challenge to the regime.
Furthermore, a number of conspiracy theories have been generated and major security concerns have been raised by the recent intensification of the ongoing shadow war with Israel. The public has begun to believe rumors that the president's helicopter accident was caused by Israeli ground forces, drone attacks, or electronic warfare. (The crash was attributed to a "technical failure," according to the state news agency IRNA.)
Despite these difficulties, Iran's power dynamics make it unlikely that the change in leadership will have a major effect on the stability of the nation. The Supreme Leader is in charge of a number of interconnected circles that make up the Iranian political system. There are other primary players who are prepared to step in and fill the vacuum, so losing one would not be a significant disturbance.
In the interim, until fresh elections are conducted, acting president is Vice President Muhammad Mokhber. It is anticipated that the Supreme Leader's inner circle of conservatives would choose their favorite candidate for the election in an effort to ensure a smooth transition with few obstacles. On X, Khamenei shared:
Nonetheless, a historical examination of the Islamic Republic's leadership reveals a recurrent pattern of power struggles between conservatives and reformists, which balances Iranian politics and strengthens the regime's standing with the general population.
Therefore, Raisi's successor may adopt a somewhat moderate attitude, even though he will be nominated and backed by a conservative inner circle. This group includes moderate conservative leaders like Ali Larijani, the former speaker of the parliament, and Muhammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of the current parliament.
What does that signify for the neighbors of Iran?
Raisi made the Middle East the primary focus of the nation's foreign policy throughout his administration. This was a change from what his predecessor, Hassan Rouhani, had prioritized, which was fortifying connections with European nations and normalizing relations with other Western countries.
For example, Iran and Saudi Arabia held five rounds of talks in Iraq under Raisi's president, which resulted in the historic normalization of relations between the two countries in early 2023.
It was clear to me as a former strategic communication assistant to the prime minister of Iraq that Iran was serious about developing strong, long-term relationships with its neighbors.
The result of these talks brought an end to a protracted civil war in Yemen, made it easier for Arab nations to resume regular ties with Syria, and improved security in Iraq.
Furthermore, Iran has just started holding serious talks with Egypt and Jordan, once more with Iraq's assistance. These programs provided an opportunity to put an end to the sectarian hostilities that have long dominated the area and provide a foundation for future collaboration.
During Raisi's president, Iran's relations with China and Russia also deepened, indicating a long-term, strategic shift to the East approved by the Supreme Leader. Nonetheless, Iran persisted in holding talks with Western nations on its nuclear program, utilizing distinct strategies in contrast to Rouhani's administration.
It appears that a new president of Iran will likely carry on the same foreign strategy. This continuity is further reinforced by the selection of Ali Bagheri Kani as acting foreign minister after the helicopter disaster that also claimed the life of the incumbent foreign minister. Kani, who spearheaded the nuclear talks under Raisi, is in line with the nation's long-standing foreign policy objectives.
Furthermore, Iran's improved ties with its neighbors indicate a longer-term move away from isolation. In the near future, this is probably going to get better.
For example, Iran and Saudi Arabia held five rounds of talks in Iraq under Raisi's president, which resulted in the historic normalization of relations between the two countries in early 2023.
It was clear to me as a former strategic communication assistant to the prime minister of Iraq that Iran was serious about developing strong, long-term relationships with its neighbors.
The result of these talks brought an end to a protracted civil war in Yemen, made it easier for Arab nations to resume regular ties with Syria, and improved security in Iraq.
Furthermore, Iran has just started holding serious talks with Egypt and Jordan, once more with Iraq's assistance. These programs provided an opportunity to put an end to the sectarian hostilities that have long dominated the area and provide a foundation for future collaboration.
During Raisi's president, Iran's relations with China and Russia also deepened, indicating a long-term, strategic shift to the East approved by the Supreme Leader. Nonetheless, Iran persisted in holding talks with Western nations on its nuclear program, utilizing distinct strategies in contrast to Rouhani's administration.
It appears that a new president of Iran will likely carry on the same foreign strategy. This continuity is further reinforced by the selection of Ali Bagheri Kani as acting foreign minister after the helicopter disaster that also claimed the life of the incumbent foreign minister. Kani, who spearheaded the nuclear talks under Raisi, is in line with the nation's long-standing foreign policy objectives.
Furthermore, Iran's improved ties with its neighbors indicate a longer-term move away from isolation. In the near future, this is probably going to get better.